From first to second wave: follow-up of the prospective COVID-19 cohort (KoCo19) in Munich (Germany).

BACKGROUND: In the 2nd year of the COVID-19 pandemic, knowledge about the dynamics of the infection in the general population is still limited. Such information is essential for health planners, as many of those infected show no or only mild symptoms and thus, escape the surveillance system. We therefore aimed to describe the course of the pandemic in the Munich general population living in private households from April 2020 to January 2021. METHODS: The KoCo19 baseline study took place from April to June 2020 including 5313 participants (age 14 years and above). From November 2020 to January 2021, we could again measure SARS-CoV-2 antibody status in 4433 of the baseline participants (response 83%). Participants were offered a self-sampling kit to take a capillary blood sample (dry blood spot; DBS). Blood was analysed using the Elecsys® Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay (Roche). Questionnaire information on socio-demographics and potential risk factors assessed at baseline was available for all participants. In addition, follow-up information on health-risk taking behaviour and number of personal contacts outside the household (N = 2768) as well as leisure time activities (N = 1263) were collected in summer 2020. RESULTS: Weighted and adjusted (for specificity and sensitivity) SARS-CoV-2 sero-prevalence at follow-up was 3.6% (95% CI 2.9-4.3%) as compared to 1.8% (95% CI 1.3-3.4%) at baseline. 91% of those tested positive at baseline were also antibody-positive at follow-up. While sero-prevalence increased from early November 2020 to January 2021, no indication of geospatial clustering across the city of Munich was found, although cases clustered within households. Taking baseline result and time to follow-up into account, men and participants in the age group 20-34 years were at the highest risk of sero-positivity. In the sensitivity analyses, differences in health-risk taking behaviour, number of personal contacts and leisure time activities partly explained these differences. CONCLUSION: The number of citizens in Munich with SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was still below 5% during the 2nd wave of the pandemic. Antibodies remained present in the majority of SARS-CoV-2 sero-positive baseline participants. Besides age and sex, potentially confounded by differences in behaviour, no major risk factors could be identified. Non-pharmaceutical public health measures are thus still important.

Prevalence and Risk Factors of Infection in the Representative COVID-19 Cohort Munich.

Given the large number of mild or asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 cases, only population-based studies can provide reliable estimates of the magnitude of the pandemic. We therefore aimed to assess the sero-prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in the Munich general population after the first wave of the pandemic. For this purpose, we drew a representative sample of 2994 private households and invited household members 14 years and older to complete questionnaires and to provide blood samples. SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity was defined as Roche N pan-Ig ≥ 0.4218. We adjusted the prevalence for the sampling design, sensitivity, and specificity. We investigated risk factors for SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and geospatial transmission patterns by generalized linear mixed models and permutation tests. Seropositivity for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies was 1.82% (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.28-2.37%) as compared to 0.46% PCR-positive cases officially registered in Munich. Loss of the sense of smell or taste was associated with seropositivity (odds ratio (OR) 47.4; 95% CI 7.2-307.0) and infections clustered within households. By this first population-based study on SARS-CoV-2 prevalence in a large German municipality not affected by a superspreading event, we could show that at least one in four cases in private households was reported and known to the health authorities. These results will help authorities to estimate the true burden of disease in the population and to take evidence-based decisions on public health measures.

Publisher Correction to: Protocol of a population-based prospective COVID-19 cohort study Munich, Germany (KoCo19).

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via the original article.

Protocol of a population-based prospective COVID-19 cohort study Munich, Germany (KoCo19).

BACKGROUND: Due to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, public health interventions have been introduced globally in order to prevent the spread of the virus and avoid the overload of health care systems, especially for the most severely affected patients. Scientific studies to date have focused primarily on describing the clinical course of patients, identifying treatment options and developing vaccines. In Germany, as in many other regions, current tests for SARS-CoV2 are not conducted on a representative basis and in a longitudinal design. Furthermore, knowledge about the immune status of the population is lacking. Nonetheless, these data are needed to understand the dynamics of the pandemic and hence to appropriately design and evaluate interventions. For this purpose, we recently started a prospective population-based cohort in Munich, Germany, with the aim to develop a better understanding of the state and dynamics of the pandemic. METHODS: In 100 out of 755 randomly selected constituencies, 3000 Munich households are identified via random route and offered enrollment into the study. All household members are asked to complete a baseline questionnaire and subjects ≥14 years of age are asked to provide a venous blood sample of ≤3 ml for the determination of SARS-CoV-2 IgG/IgA status. The residual plasma and the blood pellet are preserved for later genetic and molecular biological investigations. For twelve months, each household member is asked to keep a diary of daily symptoms, whereabouts and contacts via WebApp. If symptoms suggestive for COVID-19 are reported, family members, including children < 14 years, are offered a pharyngeal swab taken at the Division of Infectious Diseases and Tropical Medicine, LMU University Hospital Munich, for molecular testing for SARS-CoV-2. In case of severe symptoms, participants will be transferred to a Munich hospital. For one year, the study teams re-visits the households for blood sampling every six weeks. DISCUSSION: With the planned study we will establish a reliable epidemiological tool to improve the understanding of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and to better assess the effectiveness of public health measures as well as their socio-economic effects. This will support policy makers in managing the epidemic based on scientific evidence.